Hybrid Statistical Estimation of Mutual Information for Quantifying Information Flow

Analysis of a probabilistic system often requires to learn the joint probability distribution of its random variables. The computation of the exact distribution is usually an exhaustive precise analysis on all executions of the system. To avoid the high computational cost of such an exhaustive search, statistical analysis has been studied to efficiently obtain approximate estimates by analyzing only a small but representative subset of the system’s behavior. In this paper we propose a hybrid statistical estimation method that combines precise and statistical analyses to estimate mutual information and its confidence interval. We show how to combine the analyses on different components of the system with different precision to obtain an estimate for the whole system. The new method performs weighted statistical analysis with different sample sizes over different components and dynamically finds their optimal sample sizes. Moreover it can reduce sample sizes by using prior knowledge about systems and a new abstraction-then-sampling technique based on qualitative analysis. We show the new method outperforms the state of the art in quantifying information leakage.